Sunday, November 6, 2016
Mathematical and moral deference
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Scepticism as a engineering problem
Think of all the opinions that right-thinking people have. They have strong opinions about what time it is, what happened a day ago, whether humans are causing climate change, what the capital of Sweden is, roughly how old the universe is, what stars are made of, and so on. Maybe they’re certain of some of this stuff; maybe they’re just pretty confident. Maybe there are also some things that a right-thinking person will think is between 60% and 70% likely, or whatever. In any case, there’s a credence distribution that sensible people will roughly have. Think for a bit about that credence distribution, in all its glorious and wide-ranging detail.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
Ripped at the seems
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Who can you trust?
- There isn’t as much evidence for psychological differences between the sexes as a lot of people make out.
- A lot of the research into this sort of thing is done very badly.
- A lot of the popular writers either misinterpret or wildly extrapolate from what evidence there is, and sometimes just make things up.
- The hypotheses getting tested tend to be based on stereotypes.
- There’s no shortage of places to look for non-genetic explanations for the differences that have been found.
Fine seemed to be on the level just as much as Pinker did, and what she said was largely pretty persuasive. Since she went into far more detail about this specific issue than Pinker did, I suppose my credences are currently balanced in her favour, and my trust in the other 20½ chapters of Pinker’s book is correspondingly undermined. Mostly though, I just don’t know what to think. Fine goes into far more detail about the methods of the research she disagrees with than those of the research she uses to support her positive claims, so I’ve no way of knowing that I won’t read another book in a few months’ time which critiques that just as severely. If she had gone into as much detail about it all it would have doubled the length of her book though, so I can kind of see why she didn’t.
I like reading non-fiction, and I particularly like reading science books pitched at about the level Pinker’s and Fine’s books are pitched at. But I sometimes wonder why I bother. I’m trying to learn but if what I end up believing depends on which persuasive-sounding books are entertainingly written and easy to get hold of, then I’m not learning at all; I’m just making myself an unwitting vehicle for the memes I happen to get infected with. That’s no good. If all I’m going to learn from reading non-fiction is that scientists disagree with each other just as much as philosophers do and nobody really knows anything about anything, then maybe I’ll just read PG Wodehouse all the time.
Friday, December 24, 2010
Even Pyrrho believes in composite objects
Here’s an argument against hydrological scepticism. Given the way we’ve been using the word ‘water’ all this time, it’s going to refer to whatever is the wet stuff rivers and lakes are made of. Now we might have got our chemistry wrong, and actually the wet stuff isn’t H20 at all; it’s XYZ. In that case there wouldn’t be any H20, and considered as counterfactual that’d be a situation without any water. But considered as actual, if the wet stuff is XYZ then when we've been saying 'water' we've been talking about XYZ, so water is XYZ, so we still know there’s water. None of that’s very controversial. Even if you’re fan of (what I understand to be the views of) Pyrrho and think that while everyday knowledge is fine our claims to scientific knowledge are pushing it, you can still be sure there’s water.
Now think about a mereological nihilist who thinks composition’s not identity and there aren’t any composite objects. There are electrons and quarks, but no atoms, molecules, skyscrapers or galaxies. Here’s an argument that this combination of views doesn’t hang together well. Start from the position of someone who thinks composition isn’t identity, and it happens but contingently. Now consider the situation, which they think is possible, where composition hadn’t happened. That’d be a world with just simples and no composite objects, just like the mereological nihilist thinks. Of course the simples arranged peoplewise wouldn’t have noticed, because some simples arranged skyscraperwise look just like a skyscraper. What would the part-whole-talk have referred to? If there’s no eligible referent that matches use well enough, then it wouldn’t have referred to anything. Is there such a referent? What about plurality inclusion? It looks reasonably eligible to me. The simples arranged chairlegwise would be among the simples arranged chairwise. Plurality inclusion is a partial ordering like parthood’s meant to be. I’m not saying that it's a more eligible referent than the part-whole relation, but in the absence of the latter I think plurality inclusion is a pretty good candidate.
Plurality inclusion is what composition-as-identity fans think part-whole-talk is actually about. So my suggestion is that if you don’t think composition’s identity, then you should think that if composition didn’t happen then part-whole-talk would be about plurality-inclusion and identity. This is inconsistent with the combination of composition-isn’t-identity and mereological nihilism.
So if the argument works, we can be surer that composition happens than we can be that non-identity composition happens, just as we can be surer that there’s water than that there’s H2O. Also, we shouldn’t think both that water’s H2O and that there’s no water in the rivers. If thinking composition isn’t identity and it doesn’t happen is like that, then we shouldn’t think both those things. But some people do.
Now, this argument makes use of the Lewis-style metasemantics whereby reference is determined by use plus naturalness. It also supposes that our concept of composition is the kind of concept which, like that of water, doesn’t tell you all about what composition’s like. But if you don’t think composition’s identity, then you should think that. And even if you do, maybe you should still think that. Look at Peter van Inwagen’s despair at solving the general composition question. In spite of the theoretical background it relies on though, I think it’s an interesting argument, one I’ve not seen written down before and one I’d like to see mereological nihilists address.